Will The Situation be Repeated as in The Spanish Flu?

Will The Situation be Repeated as in The Spanish Flu?

COVID-19 – Not the first pandemic that humanity is fighting. About 100 years ago our ancestors faced a pandemic called the Spanish flu. At that time about 2% of the population died. Applying this figure to the current world population will reach 150 million people.

According to economists, the data suggests that the pandemic of that time could have been “the fourth worst economic shock since 1870”. Only the Second World War, the Great Depression and the First World War would come before it.

The progress of the current pandemic and its consequences may serve to look at how the Spanish flu pandemic developed between 1918 and 1920.

The high number of deaths had a great influence on the economic part, excluding the effects of the First World War, consumption fell by an average of 8% and GDP by 6%, and there were large falls in the capital markets. According to economists, current efforts to prevent the spread of disease justify the potential losses that a pandemic could bring.

History has known that the Spanish flu came in three main phases. The first phase occurred in spring 1918, the second (deadliest) began in September 1918 and ended in January 1919. The third then began in February 1919 and lasted for the rest of the year. Some countries, according to economists, went through the fourth wave in 1920. The first two ran during World War I and therefore the disease spread at a high rate. Interestingly, mortality varied considerably from country to country and was extremely low somewhere. On the contrary, it was highest in India, where it reached 5.2%.

Thanks to the advanced level of health and quarantine, the disease (COVID-19) should not have as high a loss of life as the Spanish flu. This time it will also have an adverse impact on the economy, so many economists are trying to reverse this situation, but what course will the overall contagion still be in question.


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